|Academia Charles Wang : Continue to be optimistic about technology and consumption two-wheel drive||
The Sino-US trade war is at a critical stage. Developed countries, including the United States, Europe and Japan, may establish a free trade zone, which will make the WTO cease to exist except in name, and is unfavorable to China's development. China's countermeasures include the continuous development of the “Belt and Road” strategy, the establishment of the China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Zone, and the promotion of the development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao economic belt. In other words, China's response measures mainly rely on internal forces and external forces. The unfavorable factor for China is that it is difficult for these measures to change the fact that China's structural reforms have slowed down in the short term. The favorable factor is that the negotiations between the US, Europe and Japan to establish a free trade zone may be protracted, and China's strength will be steadily improved during this period.
In terms of economic, the economy growth is expected to remain stable but slightly downward in the third quarter of 2018 to the end of the year. In terms of policy, the Chinese government will adjust its fiscal policy to be more active in July. The expected stabilization of the fiscal strategy will heat up, which will alleviate the economic downturn caused by the trade war. These policies are mainly to respond to changes in the international situation. The monetary policy has also continued to be marginal, and the central bank has implemented measures such as lowering the RRR and directing MLF. However, it is impossible for the country to implement flood irrigation strategy, so real estate and infrastructure will continue to be weak, and leading companies will rise. The low growth of real estate and infrastructure will affect the upstream and downstream industry chain. The leading companies in the upstream and downstream industry chain will win in fine management. Real estate, infrastructure-related companies and upstream and downstream industrial chain companies will continue to differentiate, leading companies will stronger and stronger, and is of higher value in investment.
Sino-US relations will entangle for a long time. Fluctuations in related policies will affect the short-term and even medium- and long-term growth of related industries. The degree of influence is different for different industries. In the selection of industries, we will focus on three directions: 1. the industries that products are mainly sold in domestic market, and that is unaffected by imports and exports; 2. the industries supported by the state for trade war; 3. The industries that is of core competitiveness, and is able to compete with that of developed countries in the international market.
In the long run, China is in an unprecedented period of development, and large innovations and big manufacturing will continue to rise. Technology will become a new driving force for economic growth in the future, and consumption is the endogenous driving force for economic growth.
After a round of slumping, the stock market has reached the bottom of the valuation. However, as the Sino-US trade war has just begun, the market will not be strong and the market will show a volatile state. The performance of the companies is prioritized, and the allocation of technology and consumer stocks is preferred. Pay attention to the “shuttle run” feature within the technology and consumer industries.
The investment tends to be refined and systematic, and retail investors continue to be institutionalized. Since A-shares continue to be US-shared and investment is long-term, short-term risk disturbances and policy disturbances are basically unaffected by stock investment. As the turnover rate continues to be low, the performance of securities companies is under pressure. Defaults of the bank remains low, the performance was good, and openness will increase, which show that bank shares should be allocated at least as that in CSI 300 Index. Electronic stocks have the dual attributes of technology and consumption, and are the key support of the state, so they should be configured more.
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